We must predict and plan for the future , only fools in this age who do not plan and have scenarios for the future especially when we speak about country in the size and location of Egypt. Our youth are good in mentioning examples and scenarios from abroad specifically 1954 and Romania but forgetting to create scenarios based on our situation in 2011 when it comes to internal and external circumstances.
These are the scenarios if the clashes between the security forces “the army” and the protesters continue and there is no peaceful solution especially we are coming to close to January 25th , 2012 with angry feelings from everybody.
The main scenario on the table if there is no peaceful solution for the crisis we have : An internal coupe in the Egyptian army
There is no doubt that there are many officers and soldiers who do not approve what happened exactly in the centralized zone of Cairo and some of them will think in that scenario.
When we speak about coup , there are also scenarios for it as follows :
- A young officer or middle rank officer who believes in democracy truly and will hand over power in three months or even more pulling a Swar Al Dahab scenario. “A divine miracle”
- A revolutionary young officer or middle rank officer who claims to believe in democracy will take over the rule then pull another Nasser scenario and God knows that we are paying that price of that scenario up till now.
- There is a scary scenario the army would be divided and have a fight because of the coup as we are not speaking about something like 1952 where a small group who would have been executed for grand treason if late king Farouk had ordered the rest of the army to end them.
- Now speaking about Nasser and 1952 I must hint out there is huge possibility that is this coup will be supported by the States just like in 1952 especially if the 21st century Nasser has a charisma. “No one on the scene now got any charisma from any kind in Egypt”
- There is that sinister scenario in my mind that actually we could be witnessing a shift in the players which means all what see is a preparation for Mr. X or that officer X. That scenario makes me shiver because it proves to me that we are pawns in the game of nations for real especially when I think about all the blood we are paying on a daily matter !!
Of course many people wish for it to happen right now like for instance veteran leftist national MP Abu El Ezz El Hariri who expressed his wish for this to happen indirectly to happen on TV from couple of days ago.
There is also another scenario and it is also dark if the clashes continue and if people begin in suing SCAF in front of international courts and the calls of boycotting arms to the Egyptian army …etc. Of course knowing the Egyptian people for real , any foreign intervention from these kinds will be met with huge opposition from the Egyptian people especially the Egyptians , my people got this huge charge of anger. You must know that when you go internationally , you will play according to the interests of international powers not the good intentions and you got Syria and Libya as the best examples as well history. It is dangerous route and we will pay something in return because this is Egypt.
You must know we are speaking about Egypt , one of the oldest nations in the World that knew the principle of the State and head of state. Since the Dawn of history religion and army are from the holy untouchables from this nation , most of the Egyptian rulers through out history since 7,000 BC had military background. In ancient Egypt the high priest would manage to take the rule in troubled time when the pharaoh dies and got no heir or got a weak. The state , religion and army are from components of this nation , this is why the majority is very careful and is worried.
I am not that worried about Islamists take over that much because they are taking it through democratic elections whether we like it or not.
Nobody said it will be an easy ride but when I look to the past months , when I revise positions and stands taken by many politicians and revolutionaries before SCAF, I know that these youth should not have killed. We do not plan , we only react and do not accept criticism and everybody has its own agenda over the country’s best interest whether SCAF or different political powers whether right to left.
Strangely nobody speaks about 1919 revolution and its success, may be because political powers from Islamists , Leftists and Nasserite Nationalists hate it despite its success of achieving semi-independent , a parliament and elected government not to mention a constitution we wish to have one like it now in 2011 !! There is a particular one reason why the 1919 is more successful so far than our 2011 revolution : It had a leadership
I am not speaking about Saad Pasha but I am speaking about the first and true delegation aka The Wafd which was formed from men representing all Egypt whether the Arabs as Hamd Pasha El Bassel from Fayoum or Mohamed Pasha Mahmoud from Asuit “Upper Egypt”. {Oh yes unlike the popular Myth launched in the media after the Mohamed Mahmoud clashes Mohamed Mahmoud was not the minister of interior who cracked down the 1919 revolution because simply he was among the delegation that was sent to exile in 1918-1919 , he became minister of interior in later time !!}
We do not have a real united leadership representing Egyptians because simply on February 12th ,2011 everybody refuses the other and this is why we failed to stand against SCAF all that time and I am afraid despite that there is huge polarization even among in the one family.
Historically speaking I feel we are not reliving the 1954 as much we are living the fight over power between Aybak and Aktai , sometimes I feel that we are living the Mohamed Ali era once , Mohamed Ali was assigned by the patriotic leaders led by Omar Makram ironically in early 19th century in Egypt. When Mohamed Ali took over the rule , he got rid from his rivals and sent the leaders like Makram to exile !! I think I am losing my mind !!
Anyhow back to the scenarios , may be I will should discuss the peaceful scenarios next time. One thing for sure the scenario will happen is known only by God now , I do not care about the scenarios put by humans .
May God protect Egypt and its children , May they keep them united. May God bless the souls of our martyrs and protect this nation.
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