Sometimes polls play important role in leading the opinion in the society than in reflecting the opinion in the society , this role is often noticed in time of the elections some undecided voters consider the polls a good source to choose the winning horse to bet on in the elections.
In the past two week the polls of Ahram center for strategic and political studies and Al Masry Al Youm's Baseera centre showed a rise Ahmed Shafik, Mohamed Mursi and Hamdeen Sabbahi and a decline for both Amr Moussa and Abdel Moneim Abu El Fotouh despite Moussa was leading the polls.
According to Ahram Center the leading candidates in the latest poll conducted from May 14th to 17th were : Moussa "31.7%" {going down} , Shafik "22.6%" {going up} , Mohamed Morsi "14.8%" {going up} , Abu El Fotouh "14.6%" {going down} and Sabbahi "11.7%" {going up}.
According to Baseera Center conducted in the same period : Ahmed Shafik "19.35%" , Amr Moussa "14.6%" , Abu El Fotouh "12.4%" , Sabbhi "9.5%" and Morsi "9%".
Personally I believe the voting bloc was going to vote to Omar Sulieman has gone to Shafik where us the conservative part of Abu Ismail's voting bloc has gone to Mursi as he is more conservative than Abu El Fotouh.
By the way Brookings center in the States has published the results of a poll it conducted in early May 2012 that ended one day before the presidential debate. It is extremely interesting and important despite some of the numbers have been outdated.
The methods used to conduct the questionnaires some are questionable especially we are speaking about phone polls. Any one studied marketing research will know that the phone calls are not reliable because people usually want to finish quickly.
In brief and according to what is known in media these polls are truly conducted but sometimes if not all the times the results of these polls were being sent to the regime whether Mubarak's state security in the old days or to SCAF now. Some times these results were modified in order to published."hopefully this is not happening currently"
Of course I have my own poll that will end after couple of days and its results aren't modified at all ;)
In the past two week the polls of Ahram center for strategic and political studies and Al Masry Al Youm's Baseera centre showed a rise Ahmed Shafik, Mohamed Mursi and Hamdeen Sabbahi and a decline for both Amr Moussa and Abdel Moneim Abu El Fotouh despite Moussa was leading the polls.
According to Ahram Center the leading candidates in the latest poll conducted from May 14th to 17th were : Moussa "31.7%" {going down} , Shafik "22.6%" {going up} , Mohamed Morsi "14.8%" {going up} , Abu El Fotouh "14.6%" {going down} and Sabbahi "11.7%" {going up}.
According to Baseera Center conducted in the same period : Ahmed Shafik "19.35%" , Amr Moussa "14.6%" , Abu El Fotouh "12.4%" , Sabbhi "9.5%" and Morsi "9%".
Personally I believe the voting bloc was going to vote to Omar Sulieman has gone to Shafik where us the conservative part of Abu Ismail's voting bloc has gone to Mursi as he is more conservative than Abu El Fotouh.
The question is can we trust these Egyptian polls ?
Unfortunately I feel that the representative samples we are speaking about in these polls here are too small compared to the number of eligible voters in Egypt which is nearly 51 million voters where as most of these samples due to expenses are between 1000 to 3000 maximum.
This small number does not help to cover better geographical and social classes. Already in some polls due to expenses the borders governorates "North Sinai, South Sinai ,Marsa Matrouh,Red sea and New Valley" despite their extreme importance.By the way Brookings center in the States has published the results of a poll it conducted in early May 2012 that ended one day before the presidential debate. It is extremely interesting and important despite some of the numbers have been outdated.
The methods used to conduct the questionnaires some are questionable especially we are speaking about phone polls. Any one studied marketing research will know that the phone calls are not reliable because people usually want to finish quickly.
In brief and according to what is known in media these polls are truly conducted but sometimes if not all the times the results of these polls were being sent to the regime whether Mubarak's state security in the old days or to SCAF now. Some times these results were modified in order to published."hopefully this is not happening currently"
Of course I have my own poll that will end after couple of days and its results aren't modified at all ;)
